What term describes estimating the likelihood of something happening based on our own limited experiences?

The correct term for estimating the likelihood of an event based on personal experience is the availability heuristic. This cognitive strategy involves relying on immediate examples that come to mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method, or decision. Essentially, if something can be recalled easily, individuals tend to believe it is more likely to occur, which can lead to biases in judgment.

For instance, if someone recently heard about a plane crash, they might overestimate the dangers of flying simply because that incident readily comes to mind. This does not necessarily reflect the actual probability of such events happening, as it is subjective and influenced by personal experience or recent memories rather than statistical evidence.

The other options, while related to cognitive processes, focus on different concepts. Functional fixedness describes a mental block that prevents people from seeing alternative uses for an object. Cognitive dissonance refers to the mental discomfort experienced when holding two conflicting beliefs or values. Justification of effort is the tendency to attribute greater value to outcomes that required significant effort, rather than focusing on the likelihood of events based on experience.