How can the availability heuristic be harmful in decision-making?

The availability heuristic can be harmful in decision-making because it causes individuals to overestimate the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind. When people evaluate the frequency or probability of events, they often rely on immediate examples that pop into their memory, which can be influenced by recent experiences or media coverage. This can lead to skewed perceptions of risk and probability.

For instance, if someone hears frequent news reports about airplane crashes, they might overestimate the danger of flying, despite statistical evidence that shows flying is much safer than other forms of transportation. This cognitive shortcut can result in irrational fears and poor decision-making, as individuals may base their choices on vivid but not representative examples, rather than on a balanced consideration of all relevant data. The tendency to weigh recent or memorable events more heavily can thus distort rational decision-making processes.